I think with the seasonality seen here there's a good chance inflation keeps rising and the fed must keep at the rate hikes. If/when the fed re-asserts that they WILL use the balance sheet to pick up the broken pieces (re: SVB et. al.) and WILL NOT drop rates given an overall strong jobs rate + consistently high PCE...then we will see how the mkt reacts
My guess is that market want the fed to indicate rate drops / start rate drops / at least pause. And if/when they don't there will be a bit of a sell off.
From CPI forecasts, do you think Risk-off will happen sooner or later? If the market starts to bake in interest rate reduction, will it move to risk-off territory?
I think with the seasonality seen here there's a good chance inflation keeps rising and the fed must keep at the rate hikes. If/when the fed re-asserts that they WILL use the balance sheet to pick up the broken pieces (re: SVB et. al.) and WILL NOT drop rates given an overall strong jobs rate + consistently high PCE...then we will see how the mkt reacts
My guess is that market want the fed to indicate rate drops / start rate drops / at least pause. And if/when they don't there will be a bit of a sell off.
Let's see what the fed does on Wednesday
From CPI forecasts, do you think Risk-off will happen sooner or later? If the market starts to bake in interest rate reduction, will it move to risk-off territory?